Migrant Midwest

The American heartland is poised for a demographic decline with very real consequences. Demographic Winter in the Heartland tracks the history of population growth and its projected decline in the Midwest to highlight the need for increased international migration to the region. Burkham first illustrates how the forces of fertility and migration drove the development of the region's agricultural and industrial economies, and how the region has more recently struggled with deindustrialization, outmigration, and declining fertility, a global trend. The Midwest is now the slowest-growing region in the country and has the lowest share of immigrants, contributing to stagnation at the national level. Burkham goes on to evaluate the impact of demographic decline on the regional labor market and its fiscal implications for cities, states, and the nation. His thoughtful analysis highlight global trends in fertility decline and raises doubts about the prospect of significantly boosting fertility in modern society.

This timely book proposes a bipartisan model of immigration reform designed to replenish the region's workforce and population, stabilizing communities and fueling a manufacturing renaissance. It takes seriously concerns that increases in immigration may be harmful to some Americans by presenting a nuanced view of how immigrants are integrated into local labor markets and society more generally. Ultimately, Burkham makes an argument for assimilation through residential integration. He concludes by suggesting that the coming "demographic winter" is a choice between managed decline and a more forward-looking vision of abundance that is consistent with the country's character as a nation of immigrants.