Forecasting Wet Microbursts Associated With Summertime Airmass Thunderstorms Over the Southeastern United States

This thesis seeks to develop a technique to forecast wet microbursts using currently operational technology, including upper air soundings and WSR-88D products. The technique developed is comprised of three distinct phases. First, recognize the potential threat for given environmental conditions. Second, predict the maximum outflow velocities from microbursts using predictive equations. Third, highlight key NEXRAD radar products that demonstrate a strong potential to serve as precursors to microburst formation. Using the technique developed, warning leadtimes on the order of 10 to 20 minutes appear to be reasonable in operational applications.

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