Cuba: Clearing Perilous Waters?

This report assesses Cuba’s current political dynamics and economic prospects, and where Cuba is headed. It analyzes the regime’s major civilian and military leaders and institutions, the civil society groups emerging outside the regime, and the respective roles of all these actors in the years ahead. It then evaluates how current U.S. policy, and the options of tightening or lifting the embargo, might hasten or hinder the transition toward a more democratic, market-oriented Cuba. Although it cautions that the final outcome of Cuba’s current transition will be determined internally rather than by U.S. policy, the report concludes by proposing a new, bolder U.S. strategy to help accelerate the process of fundamental change on the island.