CENAS: Coastline Evolution of the Upper Adriatic Sea due to Sea Level Rise and Natural and Anthropogenic Land Subsidence

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The CENAS Project funded by the EU as part of the Environmental Programme 1990-1994 addresses the issue of the coastland evolution of the Eastern Po Plain and future stability of the Upper Adriatic coastline in relation to mean sea level rise, natural and anthropogenic land subsidence, severe meteo-marine events and reduced sediment inflow from the watercourses. The huge amount of information needed to perform the study and the numerical models developed to make predictions of the various events are integrated into and handled by a Geographical Information System (GIS) combined with a DMRS (Data Management and Retrieval System) and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of the area of interest. Numerical modelling predictions up to 2100 of the major processes which may impact on the Upper Adriatic morphodynamics point out the precariousness of this coastal environment, especially south of the Po river delta where much of the present lowland is expected to be submerged by the end of the next century and most of the area flooded during a storm with only a one-year return period. The integrated modelling approach used in the CENAS Project is believed to be a good example of morphodynamical analysis that may be extended to other coastal areas of the world.