In this timely Quarterly Essay, Andrew Charlton demolishes some myths about Australia’s long boom. Around 2000 Australia’s economy became tied to the supercharged rise of China. We had the good fortune to have exactly the resources it wanted. This was not about inspired leadership, so much as good fortune - we became the richest people in the world almost by accident. No politician can take credit for the boom; no worker can be blamed for its end.

Now the moment of truth has arrived: as the boom fades, can we make our own luck? Charlton notes that unlike many successful countries, Australia has never had much in the way of a national strategy. This allows us to grasp opportunities as they arise, but leaves us leveraged to circumstance. It’s why we can be both a ‘banana republic’ and a ‘miracle economy’ in the space of two decades.

Today we have never been more exposed to the world. But what happens if our China luck runs out? Andrew Charlton outlines a strategy for new circumstances.