Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints: How Disasters Shape the Dynamics of Armed Conflicts

A ground-breaking study on how natural disasters can escalate or defuse wars, insurgencies, and other strife.

Armed conflict and disasters are two key challenges of the twenty-first century. The number of armed conflicts has never been higher since the end of World War II. At the same time, disasters have increased in frequency and intensity over the past two decades due to climate change, urbanization, and persistent inequalities. Providing the first comprehensive analysis of the interplay of natural disasters and armed conflict, this book offers an incisive analysis that explains whether, how, and in which contexts disasters facilitate the escalation or de-escalation of armed conflicts-as well as whether, how, and in which contexts combatants exploit or fail to exploit these catastrophes.

Tobias Ide begins by laying out a comprehensive framework that explains the link between disasters and the (de-)escalation of armed conflict. From there, he presents 36 case studies of earthquakes, droughts, floods and storms in Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. He also covers the implications of COVID-19 on armed conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and the Philippines. Finally, he combines qualitative insights with quantitative data in a unique multi-method design to analyze when disasters facilitate the intensification or de-escalation of civil wars.

Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints adds a wealth of invaluable evidence to current debates on climate change, environmental stress, and security, while providing professionals and students with timely data for their own investigations.